Cheat Sheet: Steelers at Broncos

SERIES HISTORY

This series began in 1970. Including eight postseason contests, the Broncos and Steelers have met 34 times. Denver won the first three meetings and over the first seven times these teams met, the Broncos lost just once - although Denver and Pittsburgh did play to a tie in 1974. Denver has had the edge of late, as well. From 1985 to the present, the Broncos have won 14 of the 22 battles, including four of the five playoff matchups during that time. Most recently, the Steelers are on a two-game winning streak against Denver. But in Denver, the Broncos are 13-4-1. The last time the Steelers won in Denver was 2009, with the Broncos winning the last four meetings there.

MATCHUP OVERVIEW

• The Broncos have missed the postseason for eight-straight seasons, last making the playoffs when they won Super Bowl 50. That drought, which is second-longest in the league, is also the longest for any team immediately after a Super Bowl Championship.
• This game is the Broncos' home opener. Denver has a record of 83-33-2 at home in the month of September all-time. Pittsburgh is 10-3 in its last 13 regular season road games. The Steelers have won their past 13 games road games when leading going into the fourth quarter. That is the longest current streak in the NFL.
• The Broncos gave up .8 more yards per play than then they gained in 2023. Denver also allowed its opponent to rush for a full yard more per attempt than the Broncos gained on the ground, which was the worst run discrepancy in the league.
• The Broncos gave up 48 more first downs than they produced in 2023.
• Heading into the 2024 season, Mike Tomlin had a .615 winning percentage in one-score games, best in the NFL. Last year, The Steelers .818 winning percentage (9-2) in one-score games (eight points or less), the best in the league. Cleveland was second with a .750 winning percentage in such outcomes in 2023. The Steelers started their 2024 season with a victory in another one-score game in Atlanta.
• Tomlin and Sean Payton have combined to win 334 (174 for Tomlin and 160 for Payton) games with three Super Bowl titles. Of active coaches, only Andy Reid has more career wins than Tomlin, who passed Jeff Fisher with the Steelers' win in Atlanta. Tomlin is now 12^th in wins and 12 behind Chuck Knox. Tomlin's career winning percentage is .634 compared to .618 for Payton. However, Payton is 25-22 without Drew Brees as his starting quarterback and 135-77 with Brees.
• The Steelers have now won five games without scoring an offensive touchdown under Tomlin, second-most in the league since he took over in 2007.
• Justin Fields ranks 24^th in passing yardage (156) and Bo Nix ranks 27^th (138). In terms of yards per attempt, Nix is 31^st and Fields is 16^th.
• The Steelers were plus-3 in turnover differential in Week 1. Last year, they were plus-11 - only the Ravens and Giants were better in 2023. Denver was plus-4 last season but was minus-1 in Seattle last week turning the ball over three times. Since 2022, the Steelers are 18-4 in games in which they did not throw an interception and are 2-11 with at least one interception thrown. Pittsburgh is 7-1 in games it has forced multiple turnovers since 2023 and 0-3 when forcing zero turnovers. Over the past three seasons and now including last week, the Steelers are 29-7 when they won or tied the traditional turnover battle. Pittsburgh is 0-15-1 when they lost that turnover battle over that stretch.
• The Steelers are 10-1 since 2023 in games they scored 17 or more points and 1-6 when scoring less than 17.
• Pittsburgh is 9-2 vs. rookie starting quarterbacks since 2017, but both losses came last season to CJ Stroud and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 6-24 vs. rookie quarterbacks. That is the third-highest winning percentage (.800) of any head coach since 1950 behind Don Shula and Hank Stram.
• In Week 1, Denver blitzed 46.4% of the time, the highest percentage in the league. Conversely, the Steelers blitzed 7.1%, the lowest percentage of any defense last week.

WHEN PITTSBURGH HAS THE BALL

• Denver gave up 5.8 yards per play in 2023. Only two defenses were worse. On early downs, the Broncos surrendered 6.1 yards per play. That was last in the NFL. They also allowed 370.8 yards per game, 29^th in the league. The Steelers produced 4.1 yards per play in Atlanta last week.
• Pittsburgh's 37.9% pass rate in Week 1 was the lowest in the league. When the Steelers did throw, the Steelers utilized a league-high rollout rate.
• The Steelers used 13 Personnel (1 RB/3 TE) a league-high 30.3% of their snaps. Not only was that the highest in the league, but the next closest team (Chargers) was at 16.7%.
• The Steelers aligned under center for 33 of their 66 plays and used play-action on the majority of their drop backs (52%) for the first time since NextGen Stats was created in 2016. Only the Colts used play-action a higher percentage of the time than Pittsburgh. This was a career-high for Justin Fields in play-action percentage. The Steelers used 36% more play-action in Week 1 than they averaged in 2023.
• Denver allowed the highest completion percentage (75.7%) against play-action passes in 2023.
• Fields didn't attempt one pass last week between the numbers. He also had a 3.06-second average time to throw in Atlanta. For reference, of all the quarterbacks with at least 250 passing attempts in 2023, that would have been the highest time to throw. Fields' 3.02 was the highest in the league among qualified quarterbacks last year. However, Kyler Murray (3.19) and Jalen Hurts (3.07) each had a higher time to throw than Fields last week.
• Last season with the Bears, Fields was 28-of-35 for 335 yards against the Broncos and threw four touchdowns.
• George Pickens received 32% of the Steelers' targets in Week 1. Only five pass catchers currently have a higher team target share. Pickens aligned in the slot 13 of his 47 snaps but saw all his production come on snaps when he was aligned outside the numbers.
• Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain shadowed Seattle's DK Metcalf last week on 24 of his 25 routes run. He was the nearest defender on all of Metcalf's targets, allowing three receptions for 29 yards.
• Pat Freiermuth ran a route on 75% of the Steelers drop backs in Atlanta, but when Pittsburgh was in 12 Personnel, Freiermuth was only on the field for six of 18 possible snaps. Nineteen tight ends ran more routes than Freiermuth in Week 1.
• Pittsburgh's running backs were targeted just four times in Atlanta.
• In 2023, the Steelers allowed 2.1 sacks per game. Only seven offenses were better. Last week, Fields was sacked just twice.
• Denver outside linebacker Jonathan Cooper had two sacks and four quarterback hits in Seattle last week.
• From Week 9 to Week 18 last year, the Steelers averaged 145.2 (5^th most) rushing yards per game and had 13 rushing touchdowns (2^nd). In Atlanta, the Steelers rushed for 137 yards.
• The Broncos allowed 5.1 yards per rush attempt last season - the worst in football - and allowed the second-most (118) yards per game to the running back position. Kenneth Walker rushed for 103 yards against Denver last week.
• Najee Harris carried the ball 20 times in Atlanta. He only reached that number of carries twice in 2023. Harris received 31 of a possible 43 early down snaps last week. Harris is aiming for his fifth-straight game with 75-plus scrimmage yards. Harris has 999 touches in his four seasons, the most of any player during that stretch.
• On third downs, Jaylen Warren was on the field for nine of a possible 14 snaps in Week 1.
• Last week was Fields' 19^th career game with 50-plus rushing yards. He is one of two quarterbacks in NFL history (minimum five starts) to average 50-plus rushing yards per game. Lamar Jackson averages 61.8 and Fields averages 55.5. Of Fields' 57 rushing yards in Atlanta, 75 percent came after first contact.
• The Broncos recorded two safeties in Seattle Week 1. They are the fifth team in NFL history to lose a game when recording two safeties.
• Surtain is the only rostered Broncos defensive player that was drafted in the first round.

WHEN DENVER HAS THE BALL

• Denver's offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play in Week 1 - only the Bears were lower. Per EPA, Denver has the third-worst offense in the league - only ahead of Carolina and Tennessee, as well as the NFL's second-worst passing offense ahead of the Titans.
• Per EPA per play basis, only four defenses were better than Pittsburgh's in Week 1 and the Steelers had the fourth-best run defense per EPA.
• Denver converted a series into a touchdown or new set of downs against the Seahawks just 48% of the time. Only the Panthers were worse.
• Bo Nix set an NCAA record by starting 61 games. He was one of three rookie starting quarterbacks in Week 1. In his first start, Nix attempted 42 passes, but only accumulated 138 passing yards, didn't throw a touchdown and threw two interceptions in Seattle. Despite averaging 6.1 air yards per pass attempt, Nix's average air yards per completion was just 2.5. Nix attempted 12 passes of 10-plus yards downfield, completing just two for 42 yards and two interceptions on such attempts. Will Levis was the only quarterback in Week 1 with a worse EPA per drop back. Nix's 3.3 yards per pass attempt was the lowest from a quarterback with 40-plus pass attempts since 2021. 23.1% of Nix's passes resulted in a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate of Week 1.
• Denver had four pass catchers with four or more receptions, but no one with more than 45 receiving yards. Courtland Sutton led the way with a 29% target share, and Sutton saw 60% of Denver's air yards.
• Devaughn Vele lined up in the slot against the Seahawks for 27 of his 34 snaps. He caught all eight of his targets, but it produced just 39 yards with a two-yard average depth of target.
• Tight end Greg Dulcich ran a route on 36 plays last week. All of Denver's other tight ends combined to run 12 routes.
• Last year, the Broncos led the NFL in receptions by running backs.
• The Falcons didn't use play-action on any of their pass attempts in Week 1 against Pittsburgh.
• After recording another sack in Atlanta, T.J. Watt is just 2.5 sacks away from 100 for his career and 17 sacks away from tying his brother, J.J.. Watt also had two tackles for loss last week.
• Only four running backs with at least 100 touches averaged fewer yards per touch than Javonte Williams in 2023. Williams' 3.5 yards per carry average ranked 31^st of the 35 running backs with at least 150 carries.
• Jaleel McLaughlin averaged 5.4 yards per carry last season, almost two full yards higher than Williams. McLaughlin took 16% of his rushes for 10 or more yards last season.
• Denver's running backs carried the ball last week 20 times but could only rack up 64 yards on the ground. On early downs, McLaughlin out-snapped Williams 19-15.
• Nix averaged 4.0 yards per carry in college and accumulated 38 career rushing touchdowns. He was Denver's leading rusher in Week 1 with just 35 yards on the ground and did have a rushing touchdown.
• Against the Steelers last week, Atlanta only ran the ball between the tackles on 18% of its rushing attempts - the lowest percentage of any Week 1 game.
• Denver's offense snapped the ball 18 times on third down, but only converted five last week.

SPECIAL TEAMS

• Chris Boswell hit three field goals last week from 50 or more yards last week. He is the NFL's most accurate kicker all-time from outside of 50 yards. Boswell has now made more 50-yard field goals than all other Steelers kickers combined. Boswell was a perfect 6 for 6 in Atlanta, accounting for all of the Steelers points. Boswell joins John Carney (1993) as the only kickers in NFL history to make six field goals without a miss in a Week 1 game. And Boswell punted in relief for an injured Cameron Johnston.

MOST MEMORABLE MOMENT:

Jan. 8, 2012, Broncos 29, Steelers 23 (OT)

The "Tim Tebow Game" was a tough one to swallow for Steelers Nation. The 12-4 Steelers were the fifth-seed, and Denver the AFC West champions at 8-8 was the fourth seed. As a result, in the Wild Card round, the Steelers had to travel to Denver. After two Shaun Suisham field goals, the Steelers got out to an early advantage. But Denver roared back at took a 20-6 lead into the locker room at halftime. The second half belonged to Pittsburgh, with the Steelers outscoring Denver 17-3 during that stretch - which sent this game to overtime. It took just 11 seconds of the overtime period for Tebow to find Demaryius Thomas for an 80-yard catch-and-run to quickly seal the game for the home team. Before the overtime period, Tebow had completed just nine passes. The Broncos went to New England the following week and were destroyed by the Patriots 45-10.

KEY MATCHUPS

49ers RT Mike McGlinchey vs. Steelers OLB TJ Watt - Watt played as good of a game last week as you will see from any defensive player. This week he gets McGlinchey, a better run blocker than pass protector. Expect Payton to go out of his way to heavily help McGlinchey on nearly every pass play this upcoming Sunday.

Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Broncos CB Patrick Surtain - Surtain is a premier cover man that was very recently financially rewarded by the Broncos. There are very few weaknesses to Surtain's game and he has a strong case to being the best cornerback in the NFL. The Steelers might deploy Pickens even more from the slot in an attempt to get him away from Surtain.