The "Triple Take" begins its look at the 2024 NFL Draft with a breakdown of the quarterbacks. The Steelers Radio Network trio of Matt Williamson, Dale Lolley and Mike Prisuta give their takes on the top prospects at the quarterback position. If you want to hear the audio version of "The Triple Take" click here.
The opinions of these Steelers Radio Network personalities do not reflect the views of the Steelers organization.
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Dale's Take ...
This is a good, not great group of quarterbacks, in my opinion, because of a lack of overall depth. There are some good early prospects, but not a lot of depth into the later rounds of the draft. That doesn't mean they can't emerge or get better as pros, but I just don't see Andrew Luck in any of these players this year. The difficulty in evaluating them is that so many colleges run spread offenses that essentially have the quarterback make one read and then take off running or read the defense pre-snap and determine at that point where the ball is going. That won't work in the NFL, where defenses will force a quarterback to go through progressions or disguise their coverages to show one thing pre-snap before morphing into something else.
Sleeper - Michael Pratt, Tulane (6-2 ½, 217 lbs.) - A four-year starter and three-year captain at Tulane, Pratt threw for more than 9,600 yards with 90 touchdown passes and just 26 interceptions in his four seasons. Just 10 of those interceptions came in the past two seasons, as he saw his TD-to-interception rate go to 49-10. Pratt looked the part at the Senior Bowl practices and isn't immobile, either. He finished his career with more than 1,100 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns, which isn't always easy in college football, where sacks count against a QB's rushing totals. He got better in each of his seasons at Tulane, improving his completion percentage from 55.1 as a freshman to 65.4 as a senior.
#5 - Bo Nix, Oregon (6-2, 214 lbs.) - A three-year starter at Auburn before transferring to Oregon for his final two seasons, Bo Nix went from someone who looked like an iffy NFL player in his first three seasons to one who will probably be selected in the first 50 picks of the draft. That said, a lot of his production, in my eyes, came because of Oregon's spread offense. He completed nearly 75 percent of his passes in two years with the Ducks, throwing for more than 8,100 yards with 74 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. But nearly 30 percent of his passes were thrown behind the line of scrimmage in 2023, and that's not going to work in the NFL. His ball placement on many throws also could be better, especially for someone who completed such a high percentage of passes. He was a 59.4 percent passer at Auburn. So the question with Nix is whether he's a product of Oregon's system.
#4 - JJ McCarthy, Michigan (6-2 ½, 219 lbs.) - A two-year starter at Michigan, J.J. McCarthy led the Wolverines to the national championship in 2023. But his passing stats aren't as gaudy as some of the others on this list because the Wolverines were a run-first team that wound up blowing many opponents out. McCarthy did complete 72.3 percent of his passes last season, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards with 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He looked good in the NFL Combine throwing drills. He's not a true running quarterback, but he can run, as well.
#3 - Drake Maye, North Carolina (6-4, 223 lbs.) - There's a pretty decent gap between Drake Maye and the top two quarterbacks in this draft, in my opinion. Maye's 2023 season was a slight step back from his first season as a starter in 2022. Maye has classic size, but he struggles with accuracy at times, especially on deep and intermediate passes. Some of that was because North Carolina's line was below average, but pressure seemed to get to him all too often. Maye is a good, not great, prospect.
#2 - Caleb Williams, USC (6-1, 214 lbs.) - We're splitting hairs here, but Caleb Williams comes in at No. 2 on this list because while he's mobile, he doesn't have elite mobility that my No. 1 Jayden Daniels possesses. And they're very close in terms of throwing the ball. Williams is a three-year starter who left Oklahoma with Lincoln Riley to head to USC, throwing for over 8,000 yards with 72 touchdowns and 10 interceptions the past two seasons. Williams will still probably go No. 1 overall, and that's fine. But given my choice, I'd lean toward Daniels at this point, largely based on what he can give a team as a dual threat.
#1 - Jayden Daniels, LSU (6-4, 210 lbs.) - While most people have Williams as their top guy, Daniels has all of his ability to throw the ball, but is an elite runner. The only big knock on Daniels is his lack of bulk. He's got a Lamar Jackson-like frame and skipped weigh-ins at the NFL Scouting Combine, so the 210 pounds at which he is listed is an estimate by the NFL. But he's a five-year starter – three at Arizona State, two at LSU – who was solid in his first three seasons before blowing up in his final two. In his two seasons at LSU, he threw for 6,725 yards with 57 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 26 games, while running for more than 2,000 yards and 21 touchdowns. Unlike the other top QBs in this draft, Daniels also showed he can go through progressions due to the offense run by LSU.
Matt's Take ...
Of course, all eyes are always on the quarterback position, and this looks an excellent class with five potential first-round picks as well as a host of intriguing Day 2 prospects that could go on to become starters at the NFL level. While this looks like a very strong group of first round picks, proceed with caution. The 2021 quarterback class (Trevor Lawrence first overall, Zach Wilson second, Trey Lance third, Justin Fields 11th and Mac Jones 15th) and the 2018 class (Baker Mayfield first, Sam Darnold third, Josh Allen seventh, Josh Rosen 10th and Lamar Jackson 32nd) were promising classes that have just a few huge hits in the first round. But these classes also are great demonstrations that taking a quarterback in the first round can be very risky and doesn't always go to plan. That being said, there is a lot of talent in this 2024 class, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the first three players off the board are all quarterbacks.
Sleeper - Devin Leary, Kentucky (6-1, 215 lbs.) - Leary had an exceptional 2021 season, but inconsistent play as well as injuries haven't done Leary a lot of favors since. Still, he showed out well at the East-West Shrine Game and most recently, at the NFL Scouting Combine. Leary has worked under center and in a pro-style attack more than most quarterbacks in this draft class. He has average athleticism and needs work as an anticipatory passer, but Leary has a live arm. There could be something to work with here.
#5 - Bo Nix, Oregon (6-2, 214 lbs.) - Nix has an immense amount of experience at the college level, at both Auburn and then at Oregon. He's a rare five-year starter and turned 25 years old in February. Nix has started 61 games in college! Nix is considered an excellent leader and a very mature player as he prepares for the NFL. He has good tools overall, including big hands. Nix controls the football well. He throws with touch and accuracy, but a very high percentage of his passes are attempted at or behind the line of scrimmage. Still, Nix can make plays with his legs and alter his arm angles and can improvise when plays break down, although he has just average arm talent. This is an efficient prospect that should translate quickly to the NFL game and does an outstanding job with pre-snap reads and protecting the football.
#4 - JJ McCarthy, Michigan (6-2 ½, 219 lbs.) - The quarterback of the National Champion Wolverines, McCarthy has won plenty of games at the college level going 27-1 as a starter. Toughness and leadership might be McCarthy's greatest strengths, but he is also a very good athlete, and the ball jumps out of his hands. He is a highly accurate passer and throws with good anticipation. The concerns here are that McCarthy still needs to develop as a touch passer, particularly on layered throws and that Michigan often heavily relied on its elite ground attack rather than asking McCarthy to carry the offense. This looks like an improving player, but he must continue to build up his frame and add more body armor.
#3 - Drake Maye, North Carolina (6-4, 223 lbs.) - Maye has prototypical traits. He is a fantastic athlete with a great arm and body for the position. But Maye's 2022 season was more impressive than his final season at Chapel Hill. He tried to do too much at times and his decision making was sometimes questionable. But Maye still has star potential without question. He is fearless with the arm to back it up. He has very light feet for someone his size and some twitch to his movements. When things don't go to plan, Maye can still rip a defense apart. He could end up as the best quarterback in the entire 2024 draft class when it is all said and done and a tier-one NFL starter.
#2 - Jayden Daniels, LSU (6-4, 210 lbs.) - Daniels was fantastic last season and walked away with the Heisman Trophy. He had two spectacular wide receivers to throw to, but in no way should that take away from what Daniels accomplished. He is tall and wiry, but ideally, he could add more good weight going forward. Daniels takes a ton of big hits in the pocket, but especially as a runner. He must protect himself better. He is a rare runner of the football but can also anticipate extremely well as a passer. Daniels does a great job throwing his receivers open, particularly against zone coverage. Deep passing is a real strength for Daniels. He shows excellent football intelligence, rarely puts the ball in harm's way, but still generates a ton of big plays. It should be noted that Daniels only has one year of big-time production, but he was the best quarterback in the country in 2023.
#1 - Caleb Williams, USC (6-1, 2145 lbs.) - Maybe the talk of Williams being a "Generational prospect" is overblown (and frankly, unfair to any prospect coming out of college), but this guy is extremely exciting. Surprisingly, USC's supporting cast - particularly his offensive line - didn't help Williams much this past season and as a result, his 2023 season wasn't as jaw-dropping as his previous time with the Trojans. He was constantly under pressure. Williams is a supremely balanced athlete and that shows up in all phases of playing the position. He has a rare feel for the pocket with a great arm and arm functionality. Williams is a natural playmaker that is rarely seen at any level of play. Williams might need to dial it down a little though at the next level, as we too often saw him playing hero ball that led to negative plays. As was the case with Maye and Daniels, Williams didn't work out at the Combine.
Mike's Take …
Quarterback is without question the most difficult position to evaluate in terms of projecting success or failure at the next level. But NFL Network analyst Kurt Warner at least has a go-to fallback upon which to base his best educated guesses. "The one thing I believe can always transfer is the ability to process," Warner emphasized. "I look at a play and go, 'OK, how would you read this play?' To see that play out and see the coverages, when you can see a guy do those things consistently, that's where I say, 'OK, I believe that can at least translate to some level.' The athleticism part, I don't know. You see some guys that are so athletic in college and you say, 'OK, can it look the same at the NFL level against these better players? Are they that dynamic athletically or not?' I still believe this game is won inside the pocket, so that's how I watch tape. That's the one thing I believe I have at least an idea of how to project."
#Sleeper - Taulia, Tagovailoa, Maryland (5-102/8, 200 lbs.) - The size is less than ideal but the bloodlines are intriguing. Tua's little brother is a play-maker. The NFL Network's Bucky Brooks has called Tagovailoa "an RPO savant," but he can also throw. After transferring from Alabama, Tagovailoa went on to be come the Big Ten's all-time leading passer at Maryland (11,256 passing yards for the Terps; he also had 100 playing briefly for the Crimson Tide). When he's off schedule, he's in his element.
#5 - Bo Nix, Oregon (6-2, 214 lbs.) - His three-season Auburn tenure was forgettable but his two seasons at Oregon were majestic. Do we really need to over-think Nix having completed an NCAA-record 77.4 percent of his passes, with 45 touchdowns and three interceptions in 2023? Or his 61 career games at the collegiate level? Nix also oozes intangibles. "The preparation is one of the things that separates him, and the competitive nature," Dan Lanning, Nix's head coach at Oregon, told the NFL Network. "This guy makes everybody better when he steps on the practice field, the way he works and what he demands of the people around him." Added NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah, "There's a readiness, you can get him on the field next year."
#4 - Michael Penix Jr., Washington (6-2, 212 lbs.) - If not for a significant history with injuries Penix would be much higher on the list. He's as productive and as decorated as they come. And his physical skill set can come in handy, especially his arm talent, when it gets a little chaotic in the pocket. "He doesn't need foot space," Jeremiah maintained. "He can just hang on his back foot, no step, and still generate so much velocity and torque. He's just gonna hang on his back foot, just flip it. He's got those huge hands and that real loose, kind of whippy arm and the ball just jumps out of there. Some guys need a lot of foot space, he doesn't need any." Penix was healthy for two healthy seasons at Washington. And he beat Penn State when he was at Indiana (not many QBs have that on their resume).
#3 - Caleb Williams, USC (6-1, 2145 lbs.) - Everybody's presumptive No. 1-overall pick checks in at No. 3 on this list for a couple of reasons. No. 1, questions have been raised regarding whether his leadership will resonate in an NFL locker room. And No. 2, Williams may have been a little too reliant on coloring outside the lines and making the type of plays that admittedly dazzled on Saturdays but might not translate as well on Sundays. He'll probably go first-overall, anyway, thanks to what Jeremiah has described as a "franchise-altering upside."
#2 - Jayden Daniels, LSU (6-4, 210 lbs.) - It took Daniels a while to find his game after three seasons at Arizona State and one in Baton Rouge. But in his third game of 2023 Daniels hit on 30 of 34 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns and ran 15 times for 64 yards and two more scores. Game on. LSU head coach Brian Kelly cited Daniels' "outstanding deep-ball throws," in the Mississippi State masterpiece in an interview with the NFL Network at the Senior Bowl. "I think that confidence really set him in motion," Kelly added. Daniels is coming off a Heisman Trophy-winning season but may well still be ascending.
#1 - Drake Maye, North Carolina (6-4, 223 lbs.) - There were more issues at UNC this season than there had been in 2022, and Maye's play regressed accordingly. But he's the best from-the-pocket passer in this class. NFL analyst Greg Cosell assessed Maye as a quarterback who "throws it like Joe Burrow with the ease of motion but he's got a much stronger arm." And if all else fails, Maye is creative enough to throw left-handed touchdown passes if he has to (ask Pitt). "This is Patrick Mahomes stuff," the color analyst on the ACC Digital Network babbled when that happened last season. Sold.
