Turnovers, particularly when it comes to recovering fumbles can be a fickle mistress.
After all, the football is oblong, not round. When it bounces around on the ground, it often does so in ways that cannot be predetermined the same way a player can guess where a round ball will wind up.
The Steelers are tied for the NFL lead in forced fumbles this season with 20, including another one in Wednesday's 29-10 loss to the Chiefs when Mark Robinson jarred the ball loose on a punt return.
But much like what happened the previous week against the Ravens, when the Steelers forced two fumbles and failed to recover either one, it was the Chiefs who came up with the loose ball instead of the Steelers.
"We're not being opportunistic on the defense or on our the special teams side when given an opportunity," said head coach Mike Tomlin. "We had balls on the ground in terms of opportunities a week ago that we didn't capitalize on, and then we're not securing them on offense."
As we've seen, it's not a winning combination, especially when the Steelers' offense is turning the ball over – not at a ridiculous clip, mind you, but turning it over nonetheless.
The Steelers entered Week 17 at plus-17 in turnover margin this season. Only the Buffalo Bills at plus-20 were better. But after failing to record a turnover against the Chiefs while turning it over twice themselves, they're now at plus-15.
It's a great margin, to be sure. In fact, entering this week, only six teams in the NFL had a turnover margin of plus-10 or more. Not surprisingly, all six of those teams (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Houston, the Chargers and Minnesota) had winning records.
But, like the Steelers, the Texans in their past two games – not coincidentally against the Chiefs and Ravens – lost the turnover battle, 3-0, failing to force a miscue in those games. And they lost those games, 27-19 and 31-2.
The Steelers did force a turnover in their games against the Ravens and Chiefs, getting a Minkah Fitzpatrick interception. But, like the Texans, they came out of those games minus-3 in turnover ratio. Against good teams, that's a losing proposition.
Look at the Steelers' win over the Ravens earlier this season for proof of that. The Steelers won the turnover battle, 3-1, in that game and beat Baltimore.
Coming into this season, they were 0-18 since 2000 when they lost the turnover battle. The results have not been quite as dramatic this season, as they're 2-3 in games this season in which they lose the turnover battle.
But they're also just 1-2 in the three games this season in which they didn't force a single turnover.
"We have regressed in terms of our turnover culture," said Tomlin. "In terms of maintaining possession of the ball and getting the ball, we've been a plus group in most instances. And that's really been a catalyst for us in terms of the games unfolding the way that we desire. The last two weeks in particular we haven't been plus in that area, we've been minus in that area. So the results are what they are."
Perhaps it shouldn't be that cut and dried, but when you're playing against other very good teams, it often is the case.
• The Steelers are currently on a three-game losing streak and have fallen to 10-6.
They'll get a chance to get an 11th win next weekend when they host the Bengals. More importantly, they'll get a chance to end that three-game skid.
But what will it mean?
Perhaps a lot.
You don't have to look far to find situations where teams have lost three games in a row during a season and rebounded to have success.
The Rams in 2021 lost three games in a row in Weeks 9-11 and also lost their regular season finale, finishing 11-5. They beat the Cardinals, Buccaneers, 49ers and Bengals in the postseason to win the Super Bowl.
In 2012, the Ravens lost four of their final five games, including three-straight in Weeks 13-15 and the regular season finale to finish 10-6. They then beat the Colts, Broncos, Patriots and 49ers to win the Super Bowl.
In 2011, the Giants lost four games in a row from Weeks 10-13, yet still snuck into the playoffs at 9-7. They beat the Falcons, Packers, 49ers and Patriots to win the Super Bowl.
In 2010, the Packers twice had stretches during the season when they lost three out of four games. But they finished 10-6 and beat the Eagles, Falcons, Bears and Steelers to win the Super Bowl.
The 2009 Saints lost their final three games of the season after starting 13-0. Despite going into the postseason on a three-game losing streak, they beat the Cardinals, Vikings and Colts to win the Super Bowl.
Good teams can have bad stretches of play or stretches where the ball doesn't bounce their way. Those are just four very recent examples of that exact thing happening.
The key is that the team doesn't lose focus or panic.
"You look back, and no matter what the circumstances are, you can look back and if we had won all three games and everything else, you look back and you go into the playoffs and you're not prepared and you don't play right, and it's over," said quarterback Russell Wilson. "Or you can lose these three games and respond the right way and be ready to go.
"I think that there's highs and lows in every season, like I said, and so we've got to make sure that we end this last game on the right footing and right belief, and that's going to be really key to how we go about it and how we respond."
• Here's a little perspective. If the Steelers beat the Bengals next weekend, they'll finish the regular season with 11 wins. If they don't, they'll finish with 10.
If they get to 11 wins, they will have reached a level of victories in which just seven Steelers teams in the 2000s have achieved. And let's remember that the Steelers have won two Super Bowls, advanced to another and also played in the AFC Championship six times since 2000.
If the Steelers finish with 10 wins, they'll still have surpassed their win total from 10 of the previous 25 seasons and at least matched their win total from four others.
Also remember that the 2005 Steelers were an 11-win team that went on to win the Super Bowl, while the 11-win team in 2016 advanced to the AFC Championship.
It's all about playing well at the right time of the season. And perhaps this latest three-game stretch is enough to remind this team of the things on which it really needs to focus its energies.
• The Steelers aren't crying and bemoaning the fact that they had to play three games in 11 days because the Chiefs, Ravens and Texans all had to do the same.
"They had to deal with it too. They had a short week just like us," linebacker Alex Highsmith said after the loss to Kansas City. "They had to come on the road. There's no excuses for what happened."
There isn't.
It can, however, be a reason for what happened. And that's not making an excuse for it.
If a team plays one bad game, it gets a chance to spend a full week preparing and correcting its issues.
If it plays two bad games in a row, you can bet the focus in practices will be on correcting the things that are happening.
• Dale Lolley is co-host of "SNR Drive" on Steelers Nation Radio. Subscribe to the podcast here: Apple Podcast | iHeart Podcast Pittonline@iheartmedia.com
However, when you play three games in 11 days, it doesn't allow a lot of time for reflection. Or correction. Or preparation. Or studying your opponents' tendencies to find a weakness.
In games such as these, it comes down to talent and execution. Game-planning be damned, it's more about the Jimmies and Joes, rather than the Xs and Os.
The Steelers were simply beaten by the Eagles in their building on a regular work week. The Eagles clearly outplayed and outschemed them.
But the past two losses against the Ravens and most certainly the Chiefs on short work weeks have been all about the talent on the other sideline. And few would argue that Baltimore's Lamar Jackson or Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes aren't among the most talented quarterbacks in the league. Throw a healthy dose of Derrick Henry into the equation, as the Ravens did against the Steelers and then Wednesday against the Texans, and you'll get the results that occurred.
That doesn't excuse it. You're still allowed to make plays to combat or nullify star players. And the Steelers have some star players of their own.
But it is the reality of the situation.
It's also a reality that in the postseason, nobody will be asked to play a game on three or four days' rest. There will be time to prepare.
• The two-game lineup the NFL put on Christmas Day isn't going anywhere.
Despite being on a Wednesday this season and with 1 and 4:30 starts, both the Steelers' game at Acrisure Stadium against the Chiefs and the Texans' game against the Ravens at NRG Stadium got massive viewership.
According to Nielson, the two games, which were shown nationally on Netflix, a first for the NFL, drew nearly 65 million viewers.
The Steelers' game against Kansas City had an average viewership of 24.1 million, while the Texans' game against the Ravens drew an average of 24.3 million later in the day. Both are totals for the United States only.
Global ratings and additional numbers for viewership in the United States will be released Dec. 31.
This was the first season of the NFL's three-year deal with Netflix to broadcast games on Christmas Day. Next season, Christmas Day will fall on on a Thursday, a more natural day since the NFL already has regularly scheduled Thursday night games. In 2026, Christmas will be on a Friday.
Given the days of the week Christmas falls on the next two years, the NFL doesn't have to have the teams involved in those games play on Saturday leading into that week, though it could still choose to do so.
